New Pew Research Poll Out – Shocking Numbers!

October 21, 2008

The presidential race is tightening, that’s been the dialogue over the past week or so, but is it true? According to Pew Research, not at all. The latest poll has to be quite the barbiturate to the hopes of the McCain campaign that has been touting some recent polls as evidence that the race may be breaking Senator McCain’s way. Those polls did show a very slight movement, but so insignificant as to not statistically show anything. The Pew poll shows a very statistically significant movement, and not in the way McCain’s lobbyist pundits were hoping for.

The October 16 through 19 poll was released today, polling over 2,500 registered voters. The results are stunning, so please make sure that you are sitting. Ready? Senator Obama now leads Senator McCain by 14 percentage points, 52 percent to 38 percent. You read that right, the Pew Research poll, one of the most extensive and most trusted polls in the business shows a lead of 14 percent.

The poll is more in depth than most, also delving into the perceptions of individuals on subjects such as the the way the campaigns have been run, who they trust more with individual issues, and gives a full demographic and psychographic profiles of those that they polled. It is certainly one of the more interesting reports to read if you are into geeky stuff, like I am.

Here’s a brief breakdown:

Pew Research Poll Oct. 16-19
Your Choice for President?
Senator Obama 52%
Senator McCain 38%
Other/Undecided 10%
Best Handle Economy?
Senator Obama 53%
Senator McCain 32%
Best Handle Iraq?
Senator Obama 48%
Senator McCain 42%
Senator Obama 71%
Senator McCain 37%
Too Negative?
Senator Obama 26%
Senator McCain 56%

Two weeks out, and the race now looks to be widening. I expect Senator McCain to tone down his hateful scorn within a few days, and attempt to make nice. It won’t work. At this point, he’s burned every bridge, ticked off every Democrat and half the Republicans, and I wouldn’t expect him to be received well (if he ever really was) in the Senate chamber.

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  1. 2010 just around the corner. Republicans out in ’08, and then the antique incumbents in ’10.

  2. Message to ‘Rose’, whose comments get deleted

    I would post your comments if they were

    1. not complete copy and pastes
    2. fitting, in some way, with the post
    3. not expletive laden rants
    4. weren’t automatically marked as spam by akismet (there must be a reason for that…)


    Note from ‘plaid lemur’:



  5. I don’t think I’ve seen a poll in months that actually benefits McCain. Whether it’s favorability, leadership, economic policies, desire to watch football with the guy – McCain is back at least 4-6 points.

    That said, if the latest GOP swindler manages to win this election – without there being an Obama October surprise of epic proportions – I will never pay attention to another poll. Hell, I might be reluctant to vote.

  6. I loved your polls! Actually make me laugh out loud. Thank you!

  7. Thanks girldujour, I’m a self-laugher, and it made me laugh too. I was thinking what each candidate’s power animal would be (like in ‘Fight Club’ with the penguin, lol), and then the image of the teddy bear stuck in my mind. I couldn’t help myself.

  8. I enjoy watching Obama’s reactions to attacks. He remains unfazed, giving a clear impression that he has nothing to hide and is total control of the situation. The fact that he did not choose Hillary to be his running mate also showed the self-confidence he possesses.

    “He who knows, and knows that he knows, is a leader. Follow him”. That is Barrack Obama. America will shine with him as President.

  9. What Mr. McCain doesn’t remember is the truth needs no defense. Barack Obama is smart enough to know that all McCain is doing is digging is grave deeper…

  10. Obama by 16% on election day as long as racism doesn’t show its ugly head.

  11. […] New Pew Research Poll Out – Shocking Numbers! The presidential race is tightening, that’s been the dialogue over the past week or so, but is it true? According […] […]

  12. Keep dreaming.

  13. McCain is not an Honorable man.

  14. the Pew Poll is the ONLY poll that shows Obama with a 14 point lead. Sice all the other polls oflikely voters show it to be closer I have to say that the Pew Poll is an outlier.

    The BattleGround Poll shows it as a 2 point race:


    The AP poll shows it at 1 point:


    The IBD/TIPP Poll shows it at 3.7 points:


    Might I add that these same polls a couple days ago showed Obama with a larger lead than they do now? — It’s clear that the Pew Poll is an outlier.

    Comment from ‘plaid lemur’

    The NBC, ABC, Zogby, Fox, Ipsos, and Gallup (expanded) all show greater than an 8 point lead, NBC, ABC, and Zogby all being double digit leads, and the AP poll? Please, seriously. The AP poll included 45 percent of the respondents as evangelicals, when they were only 23 percent of voters in the last election, and all exit polls on early voters show the same percentage–that’s a biased poll.

  15. The poll is too much. If McCain is an enemy – even enemy deserves some respect.

  16. Obama better to handle Iraq? When he voted against the very strategy that finally worked?

    People just aren’t thinking very clearly in this election.

    Comment by ‘plaid lemur’

    Finally worked? It’s over? Whew! That’s a relief that the war’s over…

  17. Obama should win by a landslide if voting is not compromised by dishonesty on the part of republicans, Mc cain comes across as a mean spirited old grumpy , Palin as self centred and a danger to
    world peace.

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